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Posted 11/02/09 08:51 AM MichaelBarry Sebring, FL | I thought I saw this headline a couple of days ago:
Geithner Says Commercial Real Estate Woes Won’t Spark Crisis Maybe I am mistaken. |
Posted 11/02/09 10:28 AM jbo5112 Kansas City, MO | If Christmas sales aren't good, then many dealerships and stores will have trouble making payments on all their financed inventory, since fewer and fewer places actually own their inventory. If payments fail, many small-medium businesses will fail in the first quarter pushing official unemployment figures well into double digits. If sales are good, the companies will stay struggling or even a little above, and we might see a roughly stagnant economy going into Christmas 2010, where we'll face the same problems again.
Consumer confidence is a lot higher than a year ago, but falling again (http://www.conference-board.org/economics/consumerConfidence.cfm). Anyone have any educated predictions on the holiday shopping? Personally, I don't think people will be willing to take on the financial burden required for "good" Christmas sales, but I don't have anything to back that up (other than current economic news). |
Posted 11/02/09 11:59 AM mstebbins Excelsior, MN | Employment is lower this year than last, so I can't imagine Christmas sales will be very good. |
| Posted 11/02/09 12:52 PM jbo5112 Kansas City, MO | There's about 25-30% more people unemployed this year, but on the other hand, people aren't watching their 401k vanish either. I found this from CNN Money:
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- After a year-long spending freeze, the CEO of Best Buy says Americans are loosening their purse strings again -- but he's not betting that the shop-'til-you-drop mentality will make a comeback for this year's holiday shopping season. (http://money.cnn.com/2009/09/30/news/companies/bestbuy_holiday_strategy/index.h tm) Retail employers, who usually boost their workforce ahead of the year-end shopping frenzy, have suffered dismal sales this year and are gearing up for a rough holiday season. With staffing levels already down, there will likely be a noticeable decline in openings for seasonal workers. ... "Holiday hiring might improve slightly over last year, but only because 2008 saw the lowest seasonal employment growth in nearly 20 years" (http://money.cnn.com/2009/10/11/news/economy/holiday_jobs/index.htm) The only good reports I could find were based on some modest income gains (or slowing losses) in the last quarter, and not on forward looking numbers (employment, income levels, expected sales in large chains, etc.). Economic forecast for 2010 is mass bankruptcies and another collapse. |
| Posted 11/02/09 9:09 PM Scott from PA Hopwood, PA | jbo5112: Here are 2 articles from Yahoo Finance:
"Wal-Mart Cuts Prices on Toys As Retailers Expect Sluggish Holiday Spending" By Worth Sparkman 11/2/2009 11:22:26 AM http://www.arkansasbusiness.com/article.aspx?aid=118308.54928.130437 an d "Retailers Prepare For Slow Season" Nov 2, 2009 6:43 pm US/Central http://wcco.com/business/retailers.2009.season.2.1287392.html |
Posted 11/02/09 10:30 PM schlegsb Fairborn, OH | Haha MichaelBarry, I thought it was funny over the weekend how these two were next to eachother:
10/31 Obama says new data shows U.S. economy recovering (6) 10/31 Nine U.S. banks seized in largest one-day haul (12) Thanks Obama for citing some worthless data, tell that to the nine banks that were just seized for lack of sufficient funds. The failure of these banks and the filings of Initial claims seem to be coming like clockwork. My money is on double-digit failures one Friday within November. |
| Posted 11/03/09 4:27 PM jbo5112 Kansas City, MO | Thanks for the info, I won't be surprised at official unemployment numbers doubling in the next year or so. It'll be interesting once we hit a limit on the government numbers as it becomes nothing more than a rate of job losses instead of actual unemployment figures, since people drop off the list after a while. |
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