Posted by Greg L on 05/04/10Last updated 05/05/10
Republicans are Predictable
Most years Republican primaries are over before they start. Candidates are selected months in advance by steering committees. Their candidate usually fits one of two profiles either they have seniority at their current position, have been faithful to the party and are next in line at being promoted to a more prestigious office, or they are wealthy donor who has a willingness to finance their own campaign.
Those who try to run against the system are cut off at the knees and denied access to party assistance and resources. The only way to survive is to have the ability to run independent of the party or to toe the party line. This ability to force allegiance, an over reliance on tradition, and a reluctance to accept change have led to a party that is not just predictable but out of touch.
Such is their view of third party and independent candidates. When the support for third party increases you begin to hear the same predictable argument from the Republican loyalists "A third party candidate could potentially take away just enough votes for the Democrats to win" or "If you don't vote Republican your essentially voting for the Democrats".
The third candidate is always the spoiler. Usually portrayed as an naive fool who is being tricked by the "left" into siphoning off votes from the legitimate candidate on the "right". Those who don't belong to a major party have no chance of winning.
What if Republicans are Wrong?
What if they are the spoilers? What if they are the ones who siphoning off votes? What if the people want principled leadership and bottom-up representation, not the party-first top-down mentality currently in place? What if the Republican elites are the naive fools standing in the way of what the majority of anti-Democrats want?
Recent History: (vs TEA Party) In December of 2009 a Rasmussen Reports poll made splashes when it gave asked about a hypothetical 3 way race between the Democrat Party, Republican Party and the TEA Party. The Democrat won with only 39%, but the TEA Party with 23% beat the Republicans, who had 18%. In a Poll later that month from NBC/Wall Street Journal the TEA Party lead both major party's.
The general consensus of the polls since then has been: the Democrats do not do not have a majority support, more people identify themselves with the TEA Party than the Republican Party, and if the Republican Party would work to unite with the TEA Party rather than split the vote there would be an easy victory, if there is a 3 way race it could be a close race between Democrats and the TEA Party.
(New York) In New York's special election for the 23rd district. The Republicans chose Dede Scozzafava. The anti-Democrat, pro-reform, TEA partiers chose Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman. Due to lack of support the Republican dropped out and endorsed the Democrat. However, Dede Scozzafave's name was still on the ballot and absentee ballots couldn't be recast. The Democrats ended up winning the seat for the first time in over 100 years.
It was the Republican who was the spoiler not the third party candidate. The Republican was closer to the tax and spend Democrat the the TEA party supported Conservative Party candidate. It was the Republican who allowed the Democrat to win. It was Republican who stood in the way of a candidate for traditional American values.
(Florida) In Republican party of Florida has tried to purge itself of TEA Partiers. Republican Party of Florida chairman Jim Greer led an effort that ended in several members of the Republican Party Liberty Caucus being removed from various leadership positions. Reasons included attending Campaign for Liberty and End the Fed Rallies, or speaking out against elected Republicans.
This proved unpopular so Jim Greer was paid to resign and in as closed door meeting of the state committee James Thrasher, the successor hand picked by Florida's Republican governor Charlie Crist was installed. Crist needed Thracher to help keep the party in line during his nest political endeavor a run for the US Senate.
Things don't always go according to plan. Those liberty minded patriots in Florida found a different candidate. Crist found himself trailing in polls by a 2-1 margin to Marco Rubio. Crist recently dropped out of the republican primary to run as an independent.
Crist the choice of the republican establishment was so out of touch with the voters he ended up getting booted out of his own party. Why didn't he just concede to the better man? Is he staying in the race as an independent just to siphon off votes? Is he splitting the vote so the Democrat can win? Is this another case of the Republican Party's old guard being happier with a tax and spend statist in office than some "End the Fed" radical?
Benefiting from Large Primaries
If anything the biggest obstacle to the TEA Party/anti-establishment movement has been it's success. They have motivated too many people to run. In many races establishment candidates are facing multiple opponents.
In Kentucky Trey Grayson the establishment candidate was the early favorite. There the movement was able to unify behind a single candidate, Rand Paul. This has allowed Paul to become the clear leader in this race.
In Indiana we saw a different story. Dan Burton, an incumbent who has spent 28 years in the house, survived his primary battle with just 30 percent of the vote. He faced six challengers in the primary for Indiana's 5th congressional district, who divided the anti-Burton/anti-Washington-establishment sentiment. In their senate race Dan Coats, was recruited to run by the Republican Senate Committee and had held the seat before Evan Bayh won with less than 40% of the vote. Thats because the vote was split between Marlin Stutzman and John Hostetter.
Coats and Burton each would have lost if weren't for the vote being split. This almost makes the Republican argument that splitting the just results in big government liberals winning. Do you really believe that the 60% who voted for Stutzman or Hostetter will turn around a support a candidate who has spent the last 12 years living in Virginia working as a lobbyist for Goldman Sachs, and Chrysler? Coats is a Washington insider who's out of touch with ordinary Hoosier. It's almost like the republican faithful are driving the TEA Party vote to Libertarian Party candidate Rebecca Sink-Burris.
Conclusion
The Republican Establishment has a history of blaming third partys for there failures. Ross Perot split the vote and got Bill Clinton elected, Ed Thompson split the vote and got Jim Doyle elected. They mock, belittle, and bully third party, independent and outsider candidates and their supporters. They call for them to moderate their views and join the big tent for the good of the cause.
Now the current has changed. They are the ones who are resisting tide for limited government, and a return to the Constitution. They are the ones who should be stepping aside for the good of the movement. The wise know that at some point they have to be willing to turn things over to the young. The Republican establishment should embrace the opportunity to have fresh faces who can revitalize the electorate. The old guard should be willing to mentor, and guide those who are less experienced in the art of politics. Help them to win, help them to govern, help make this nation great.
Categories: 3rd Parties, Election News, Republican Party, Action Item, Current Events, Social Issues, Voting Tags:
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